Watchitude Reports· Sales Projections
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Sales Projections

Mar-Jul 2026 actual + Aug MTD (through day 14) + Sep 2026–Feb 2027 forecast · snapshot 2026-08-14 18:01 · refreshed 2026-08-15 11:11 ET · QB Desktop · excludes Spencer Gifts, Barnes & Noble, AWBC, Wegmans, AEO MMGT, American Eagle, class 2000 INTERNATIONAL · ⚠ 1 high-severity data anomaly: between the 09:30 and 18:00 QB snapshots, 593 items at Site="China" were zeroed (−968,699 units), including shared consumables #Rivet, #Instruction Insert and the sticker sets. Because those parts pin the BOM min(), Buildable-China fell to 0 for every watch SKU and 7 flipped OK/SOON → ORDER NOW (161, 247, 381, 604, 926, 927 and 812). Verify the China site count before acting on those reorders. Prior-run anomalies A1 (566/567/745 stranded fill) and A2 (618-Rainbow one-sided transfer) are both RESOLVED by receipts in this snapshot. See refresh-anomalies-2026-08-15.log.
Seasonal index (mean = 1.0): Jan 1.99 · Feb 1.25 · Mar 0.72 · Apr 1.05 · May 1.65 · Jun 1.53 · Jul 1.03 · Aug 0.64 · Sep 0.82 · Oct 0.68 · Nov 0.40 · Dec 0.30

Trend (Mar 2026 – Feb 2027)

0 total projected units · Sep 2026 – Feb 2027

Reorder By = when to place next factory PO assuming 45-day factory lead time and seasonal-adjusted ship rate. All quantities come from QB only_ORDERS_Shipments.xlsx is used for shipment dates/factory reference only, never for qty. Supply model (summed): OnHand at Watchitude Offices + Buildable-US (in-house assembly from WH Offices parts, available today) + In Transit (assemblable from parts at the QB "In Transit - Shipments" site, arrives ~+15d ocean average) + In China (built) at +30d (ocean-shipping lag) + Buildable-China at +30d (assemble in China then ship) + On PO at +45d (factory lead time; W-filtered — excludes customer-earmarked POs like BN/SP/TGT). The Buildable column shows both pools as US / China. Demand = Open on SO + integrated seasonal-adjusted forecast (including TGTG bumps in forecast months). Reorder By reflects factory reorder need; if you have In China (built) or Buildable-China supply, you may also need to schedule ocean shipment ("ship now"); if you have Buildable-US, dispatch in-house assembly. Global Avail = OnHand + Buildable-US + In Transit + In China (built) + Buildable-China + On PO − Open on SO (all QB-sourced; total supply minus committed demand, ignoring timing). The In Transit column shows QB-only inTransitBuildable per SKU — units assemblable from raw parts already at the "In Transit - Shipments" site. Prior refreshes summed the shipments xlsx qty/pcs column here, which mixed pieces and displays and inflated numbers (e.g. 5,128 for 811 when it should have been 213 displays) — those xlsx-mixed values have been removed and only QB is trusted. Labor components (BOM rows whose name ends in -L, e.g. #565 - L, #568 - L) are treated as non-physical assembly-cost lines and excluded from every Buildable / In Transit / On PO stock calculation — their apparent QoH values in QB are accounting artifacts, not real inventory. < 0 = over-committed; 0–100 = tight; 101–500 = neutral; 500+ = healthy. ORDER NOW = reorder date already past; soon = within 30 days; OK/1yr+ = supply covers > 1 year. Rec. Qty (shown on ORDER NOW rows only) = quantity to order to cover 135 days (45-day factory lead + 90 days of stock) at the trailing-90-day sales run-rate, net of Global Available; in the SKU’s native unit (displays for -Display SKUs).

Actual + Forecast (click a header to sort · show months shaded)

Style Total Sold On Hand Open on SO Available In Transit In China (built) Buildable On PO Global Avail Reorder By Out of Stock Rec. Qty MarAprMayJunJulAug MTDSepOctNovDecJan'27Feb'27 6-mo FC

Method & notes

Styles shown are the 11 core styles plus those averaging 20+ monthly sales-order units since Jan 2024 that are still selling. "Jump Ropes" combines 199/200/201/204; "Slap Watch" combines 070, 085, 103, 161, 170, 178, 247, 277, 279, 356, 381, 385, 387, 388, 445, 600, 602, 604, 614, 926, 927. Groups can be expanded to their individual styles. The Q3 boost applies to every style (portfolio-wide show effect); the seasonal index is built from 8 long-history reference styles. Level = sum(Mar-Jul actual + Aug MTD units) / sum(seasonal_idx × month_fraction), where full months contribute 1.0 and Aug MTD contributes 14/31 = 0.452 Forecast units = level × seasonal_idx, plus additive TGTG buying-group bumps (243, 566, 567, 746 displays and #810 Golf, 30% discount, distributed across their catalog months by seasonal index; bumps applied only to forecast months — actual months already reflect real orders). Forecast revenue = forecast units × recent average unit price.